46% of 624 likely November 2024 general election voters interviewed by Public Policy Polling for NPI from October 1st-2nd said they would support Gluesenkamp Perez if they were voting now, while another 46% said they would support Kent. 8% were not sure. Those are the final horserace percentages from the survey; the initial horserace percentages were almost identical.
55% of respondents participated via text message invitation; 45% were interviewed on a landline. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.9% at the 95% confidence interval.
In 2022, the Northwest Progressive Institute, a leader in public opinion research in the Pacific Northwest, was the only organization that provided independent, public, and credible polling of the race between Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Joe Kent during the weeks leading up to the November general election. NPI's research suggested a tough but a winnable race for Democrats, contrary to the conclusions reached by many national pundits.
Public Policy Polling is a Democratic-aligned firm based in North Carolina that has worked with NPI on its electoral and legislative research since 2013.
In September of 2022,
NPI's preelection analysis offered this assessment: "Democratic congressional hopeful Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is running a competitive campaign against ultra MAGA Republican rival Joe Kent in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District and is one of the Democratic Party’s strongest contenders for an upset victory in the 2022 midterms [...] It won’t be easy… but a Democratic victory in WA-03 this cycle is an achievable objective."
This cycle, Gluesenkamp Perez is the incumbent, and has more resources to work with in her rematch with Kent. She's well-poised for the final stretch of the campaign.
"WA-03 has replaced WA-08 as the state's most competitive congressional district," said Northwest Progressive Institute founder and executive director Andrew Villeneuve. "Republicans weren't happy when they lost WA-03 two years ago. They really want it back. Meanwhile, Democrats are equally enthusiastic about keeping it."
"With a majority of likely voters saying they plan to vote for Donald Trump, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez needs crossover support to earn reelection in this Republican-friendly swath of Washington State. She was able to secure that support in 2022 when many prognosticators wrote her off or ignored her. No one should doubt that she's capable of winning this rematch."
"This is a tossup race, where the polling couldn't be closer, and we all know that tossups can go either way. Much attention will be paid to the money raised and what the candidates and their allies say about each other in debates and on-air in their ads. But our team believes this race might well be decided at the doors. Face-to-face interaction is hugely important to electoral success. The strength of the candidates' field operations could be pivotal."
NPI's survey also found Vice President Kamala Harris five points behind Donald Trump in the district and Senator Maria Cantwell (D) three points behind Republican challenger Raul Garcia in the district.
NPI's Andrew Villeneuve is available for interviews to discuss the survey results.
About NPI
The Northwest Progressive Institute is a regionally focused nonprofit working from Washington, Oregon, & Idaho to constructively transform our world through insightful research and imaginative advocacy. NPI was founded in 2003 and is based in Redmond, Washington.
